Ukraine's Reliance on Starlink and the Search for Alternatives Amid Growing Uncertainty

In war-torn Ukraine, a simple phone call can be a rare luxury. Villagers gather around a Starlink terminal, holding up their smartphones to catch the precious signal. A small, square-shaped panel pointed toward the sky connects them to loved ones hundreds or thousands of kilometers away. In the northeastern provinces, where mobile networks have collapsed, such moments provide a fleeting sense of normalcy.

"I don’t think it can be exaggerated how big a difference it makes to people’s lives," says Ada Wordsworth, director of KHARPP, a charity that provides aid in Ukraine. KHARPP has deployed Starlink terminals in frontline villages, ensuring residents remain connected despite ongoing disruptions.

Growing Dependence on Starlink

Since Russia's invasion in early 2022, Starlink has become essential for Ukraine's military and civilian infrastructure. Soldiers use it to coordinate drone strikes, relay battlefield footage, and maintain critical communications in areas where traditional networks are no longer functional. Even encrypted military communications rely on a specialized version of Starlink, known as Starshield, designed to resist jamming and interception.

However, reports in late February suggested that U.S. officials had considered cutting Ukraine off from Starlink during negotiations over mineral resource deals. Elon Musk has denied these claims, yet concerns remain over SpaceX's dominant role in Ukraine’s telecommunications. With Musk now closely aligned with the Trump administration, fears have intensified about future disruptions.

The Search for Alternatives

For years, Ukrainian officials have explored alternatives to Starlink, but viable options remain limited. OneWeb, owned by the French satellite operator Eutelsat, has been touted as a potential substitute. Unlike Starlink, which SpaceX fully controls, OneWeb’s terminals are supplied by third-party companies. Joanna Darlington, a spokesperson for Eutelsat, confirms that OneWeb has been deployed in Ukraine but acknowledges that scaling up will take time.

"It’s possible, but it’s not instant coffee," Darlington explains, pointing out that replacing Starlink’s 40,000 terminals won’t happen overnight. Additionally, OneWeb terminals are bulkier and more expensive, costing thousands of dollars compared to Starlink’s more affordable models.

Other alternatives are emerging, but they remain years away from full deployment. Amazon’s Project Kuiper, a potential Starlink competitor, aims to launch its first satellites later this year, with a long-term goal of deploying 3,000 units. However, as a U.S.-based company, Kuiper might face the same geopolitical constraints as SpaceX.

The European Union is developing its own satellite constellation, IRIS2, which is expected to be operational by 2030. With only 300 planned satellites, its capacity will be far smaller than Starlink, which already boasts over 7,000 satellites in orbit. SpaceX has indicated it may launch over 40,000 satellites if granted approval, further cementing its market dominance.

A Wake-Up Call for Global Communications

Andrew Cavalier, a space technology analyst at ABI Research, believes Ukraine’s situation serves as a warning for nations overly reliant on private satellite providers. "This is a wake-up call for countries using Starlink. Governments may now prioritize developing their own satellite networks," he says.

Barry Evans, a professor at the University of Surrey, echoes these concerns, emphasizing how difficult it would be for Ukraine to transition away from Starlink. "People are very worried about the dominance that Starlink has," he adds.

The Human Cost

For those living near Ukraine’s front lines, Starlink is more than just a technology—it’s a lifeline. As Russia escalates its attacks, many locals fear being cut off from the world. Wordsworth, who has witnessed firsthand the impact of connectivity, is pessimistic about what the future holds.

"This isn’t a game. These are real people’s lives," she says, addressing concerns about Musk’s control over Ukraine’s communications. As the country navigates an uncertain future, the question remains: can Ukraine and its allies find a reliable alternative before it’s too late?